Project description
The Teacher Demographic Dividend (TDD) project was a research project focusing on South Africa’s need for teachers in the next decade and beyond. At the project’s inception, it was estimated that about half of all government-employed teachers in South Africa will retire by 2035. Replacing them would be one of the country’s biggest challenges.
Our aim was to establish a detailed understanding of the situation by:
- Developing a model that predicts demand for and supply of teachers over the coming decades;
- Investigating the effects that the wave of teacher retirements is likely to have on the education system; and
- Identifying windows of opportunity for improving education that will be created by the wave of teacher retirements, and making policy recommendations accordingly.
It was important to understand the impending need for more teachers for three broad reasons. Firstly, teaching staff form the backbone of our schooling system. Without sufficient teachers, it would not be possible to educate our children. Secondly, significant changes in teacher employment patterns could also have a significant impact on government expenditure. Teacher salaries were the largest single line item in the South African budget in 2022, accounting for approximately 3.5% of GDP and 10% of total government expenditure. Older teachers tend to earn more than younger ones, so the impact of a large cohort “aging out” of the system could be substantial. Thirdly, the impending retirement wave presented a once-in-a-generation opportunity to revitalise the education system through an influx of new teachers – if those new teachers were sufficiently competent and motivated. Initial teacher education was therefore a major focus of the project.
Funders and Partners
The Teacher Demographic Dividend project was supported by two funders: The Allan & Gill Gray Philanthropies, and FEM Education Foundation.
The project received formal endorsement from the Department of Basic Education (DBE) and the Gauteng Department of Education, and worked closely with stakeholders in all provincial departments of education. The project findings were shared with several national government departments.
Our researchers were drawn from a range of South African universities, research organisations, private consultancies and the Research, Monitoring and Evaluation Directorate of the DBE.
Project outputs
Videos summarising key findings
Working papers & reports
Gustafsson, Martin. Projections of Educators by Age and Average Cost to 2070: A first report, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022. Note: This working paper was accompanied by an Excel model.
Shepherd, Debra. The Teacher Labour Market and Pay: How does it compare to other professions?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022a.
Shepherd, Debra. Teachers’ level of education and employment over the last two decades: What can be learnt from labour force survey data?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022b.
Roberts, Nicky and Moloi, Qetelo. The Quality of Primary Mathematics Teacher Preparation in SA: Findings from PrimTEd, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022.
Wills, Gabrielle. South African teacher shortages as revealed through class sizes and learner-educator ratios: An exploratory analysis, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2023.
Gustafsson, Martin. Projections of Educators by Age and Average Cost to 2070: Final Report, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2023. Note: This working paper was accompanied by an Excel model, a video explaining key points of the report, and the video script.
Böhmer, Bianca and Gustafsson, Martin. Provincial Educator Demand Projections for South Africa: 2021-2030, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2023.
Takalani, Mukovhe Glen and Shepherd, Debra. Who and How Matters: Using situated expectancy value theory to explore the mathematics performance of Grade 9 learners in South Africa, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2023.
Kruger, John, Hompashe, Dumisani and Swelindawo, Lunga. “An overall pattern of dissatisfaction”? Interviews with primary school teachers on motivation, experience and recruitment, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2024.
Hofmeyr, Heleen; Pampallis, Irene; Qvist, Jess and Swelindawo, Lunga. Teacher preferences and job satisfaction in South Africa, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2024.
Research notes
1. Van der Berg, Servaas and Gustafsson, Martin. Note 1: How many teachers will retire by 2030?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022.
2. Spaull, Nic. Note 2: Teacher production, class size & learner population growth, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022.
3. Spaull, Nic and Ntaka, Poppie. Note 3: To what extent are provinces freezing HOD and Deputy Principal posts to cope with budgetary pressures?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022a.
4. Ntaka, Poppie. Note 4: Are provinces hiring the additional teachers universities produce?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022.
5. Spaull, Nic and Ntaka, Poppie. Note 5: Which universities produce the most teachers who enter public schools?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022b.
6. Böhmer, Bianca and Pampallis, Irene. Note 6: How many teachers are universities producing?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022.
7. Pampallis, Irene. Note 7: What do teachers earn?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022a.
8. Shepherd, Debra and Spaull, Nic. Note 8: Where do teachers fall relative to others in the labour market?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022.
9. Pampallis, Irene. Note 9: What are the matric marks of those entering ITE programmes?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022b.
10. Spaull, Nic and Courtney, Peter. Note 10: Teacher knowledge and teacher age: What are the levels of in-service teacher knowledge?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022.
11. Roberts, Nicky and Moloi, Qetelo. Note 11: The Quality of Primary Mathematics Teacher Preparation in SA: Findings from PrimTEd, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2022.
12. Wills, Gabrielle and Böhmer, Bianca. Note 12: Male Managers, Female Teachers: The South African case of gender imbalances in school leadership and management, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2023.
13. Deghaye, Nicola. Note 13: The impact of teacher retirements on inclusive education: A dark cloud, or one with a silver lining?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2024.
14. Kika-Mistry, Jesal. Note 14: Spending and Budget Trends in the Early Childhood Care and Education Sector, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2024.
15. Kruger, John. Note 15: Spending and Budget trends in the South African Post-School Education and Training Sector, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2024.
16. Böhmer, Bianca and Kruger, John. Note 16: Spending and Budget Trends in the South African Basic Education Sector, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2024.
17. Moses, Eldridge. Note 17: Principal Retention and Attrition Trends in South Africa: Insights from the PERSAL data, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2024.
18. Taylor, Nick. Note 18: Initial Teacher Education: Implications for reform from the Teacher Demographic Dividend project, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), forthcoming.
19. Teacher Demographic Dividend. Making sense of the Teacher Demographic Dividend Project: Synthesis Note 1: Can we address the problem of large class sizes through more (and better) teachers?, Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP), 2024.
Presentations
1. Teacher Demographic Dividend. “Eastern Cape Province: Educator Demand Projections, 2021-2030.” PowerPoint presentation, TDD provincial workshops, presented to the Eastern Cape Department of Education, July 21, 2023.
2. Teacher Demographic Dividend. “KwaZulu-Natal Province: Educator Demand Projections, 2021-2030.” PowerPoint presentation, TDD provincial workshops, presented to the KwaZulu-Natal Department of Education, July 23, 2023.
3. Teacher Demographic Dividend. “Mpumalanga Province: Educator Demand Projections, 2021-2030.” PowerPoint presentation, TDD provincial workshops, presented to the Mpumalanga Department of Education, July 27, 2023.
4. Teacher Demographic Dividend. “Northern Cape Province: Educator Demand Projections, 2021-2030.” PowerPoint presentation, TDD provincial workshops, presented to the Northern Cape Department of Education, July 31, 2023.
5. Teacher Demographic Dividend. “Western Cape Province: Educator Demand Projections, 2021-2030.” PowerPoint presentation, TDD provincial workshops, presented to the Western Cape Education Department, August 3, 2023.
6. Teacher Demographic Dividend. “Free State Province: Educator Demand Projections, 2021-2030.” PowerPoint presentation, TDD provincial workshops, presented to the Free State Department of Education, August 14, 2023.
7. Gustafsson, Martin (Stellenbosch University and the Department of Basic Education). “Teacher demographics in South Africa: National and provincial insights.” PowerPoint presentation, Quantitative Educational Research (QER) Conference, Stellenbosch, September 5, 2023.
8. Teacher Demographic Dividend. “North West Province: Educator Demand Projections, 2021-2030.” PowerPoint presentation, TDD provincial workshops, presented to the North West Department of Education, September 11, 2023.
9. Teacher Demographic Dividend. “Limpopo Province: Educator Demand Projections, 2021-2030.” PowerPoint presentation, TDD provincial workshops, presented to the Limpopo Department of Education, October 15, 2023.
10. Teacher Demographic Dividend. “Gauteng Province: Educator Demand Projections, 2021-2030.” PowerPoint presentation, TDD provincial workshops, presented to the Gauteng Department of Education, October 24, 2023.
11. Donaldson, Andrew R. (Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit). “Education, growth, development: A long run perspective.” Presentation, TDD Fiscal Workshop series, April, 2024.
12. Lewin, Thandi (University of Johannesburg) and Parker, Diane (University of Pretoria). “The Higher Education Budget.” Presentation, TDD Fiscal Workshop series (virtual), April 24, 2024.
13. Kruger, John. “(Thinking about) Prioritising Education Spending (Or, Escaping the Human Capital Trap).” Presentation, TDD Fiscal Workshop series (virtual), April 25, 2024.
14. Mohamed, Zaheera and McLaren, Daniel (Ilifa Labantwana). “Trends in early childhood development funding.” Presentation, TDD Fiscal Workshop series (virtual), April 25, 2024.
15. Keller, Sonja (JPMorgan Chase Bank). “Budget 2024: Navigating the fiscal adjustment path.” Presentation, TDD Fiscal Workshop series (virtual), April 2024.
16. Janari, Spencer (National Treasury). “Basic Education Spending and Budget Trends: A 10 Year Overview.” Presentation, TDD Fiscal Workshop series (virtual), May 9, 2024.
17. Philip, Kate. “Moving the Dial on Learning Outcomes? The Presidential Employment Stimulus.” Presentation, TDD Fiscal Workshop series (virtual), May 9, 2024.
18. Gustafsson, Martin (Stellenbosch University and the Department of Basic Education), “Basic education spending and costs: The learner-educator ratio and related resourcing issues.” Presentation, TDD Fiscal Workshop series (virtual), May 2024.
Media coverage
To view media coverage related to the TDD project, click here.
