The impact of early grade repetition on learner marks

Grade repetition in South Africa is commonly used as a remedial policy, aimed at helping learners mature and reinforce their academic foundations. Repetition rates are high compared to neighbouring countries, with repetition accounting for about 8% of the education budget annually1. However, the effectiveness of repetition remains contested internationally2. Understanding its impact in South Africa is key to evaluating the cost-effectiveness of repetition. This policy brief draws on evidence from my forthcoming paper, The impact of early grade repetition on test scores in South Africa: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity design, which draws on data from six provinces and provides causal evidence on the short- and medium-term effects of repeating Grade 1 or Grade 4. The analysis finds that, for repetition in both grades, repeaters whose marks were just below the threshold for repetition performed better in subsequent grades than similar learners who just passed. The effect in the grade immediately following the repetition is very large in relation to local early learning interventions3, and while the size of the impact fades over time it remains statistically and practically meaningful by Grades 4 and 7 respectively. The benefits are evident across provinces and school quintiles. Girls benefit slightly more from repetition than boys; a pattern consistent with widening early-grade gender gaps4. The analysis shows that South Africa’s grade promotion policy is achieving its purpose by supporting academic catch-up, especially among Grade 1 learners facing challenges in their home language. Despite these positive impacts, it is not feasible to simply increase the repetition rate: scaling up this practice would require additional teacher support to prevent larger class sizes and sustain learning gains. Policymakers should also weigh the longer-term risk of increased dropout rates in later grades, which can exist even when short-term progress is evident5,6. While the current data do not allow for an assessment of these long-term outcomes, extending the administrative data to enable such analyses will be important for designing informed repetition policies. The precise results reported in this paper allow the medium-term impact of repetition to be compared to that of other proven interventions – such as targeted language learning support3 and structured pedagogy7 – and is therefore a first step in identifying the most cost-effective strategies to support learners who fall behind.