Assessing the Relationship Between School-Based Assessment and Matric Performance in Mathematics: A Quantitative Analysis of Poor Schools in Limpopo

This study investigates whether the quality of school-based assessment (SBA) influences matriculation performance in Mathematics within quintile 1 to 3 schools in Limpopo, South Africa. It builds on previous literature that identified poor schools in Limpopo excelling in Mathematics achievement at the matriculation level. The research aims to determine whether high-quality assessments contribute to improved outcomes in high-stakes examinations. Using a panel dataset with learner level SBA data, the paper evaluates assessment quality through two metrics: accuracy (correlation between SBA and NSC marks) and leniency (the gap between these marks). Findings reveal that both leniency and accuracy in assessment improved significantly from earlier grades in the Further Education and Training (FET) phase to matric. Additionally, the sampled period overlaps with years affected by COVID-19, during which changes in assessment quality were observed due to assessment policies implemented to mitigate the effects of school disruptions. Significantly higher leniency in assessment was detected in grades 10 and 11 between 2020 and 2022. Quintile 1 to 3 schools with consistently high assessment quality, even during COVID-19-affected years, were identified as ”outlier” poor schools. These outlier schools achieved better matric Mathematics results than other poor schools in the province, highlighting a positive relationship between high-quality SBA and matric Mathematics performance. The study underscores the importance of meaningful assessment practices and identifies schools with high quality assessment as potential models for educational improvement in resource constrained settings.