WP01/2003

Orphans of the HIV/Aids epidemic: An impending crisis for South African development

Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP01/2003

Author(s): Megan Louw

JEL Classification: I18, I38, J11, H51, H55

Keywords: HIV/Aids, South Africa, orphans

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Abstract:

Despite the fact that there are currently millions of HIV-infected people living in South Africa, the worst effects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic have yet to be felt. The most long lasting of these is the anticipated dramatic increase in orphanhood. This paper examines the extent of the impending orphan crisis in South Africa (predominantly using the ASSA2000 model), the impacts of orphanhood on children in HIV/AIDS affected communities, and the role of the Department of Social Development in addressing the issue. National government has committed itself to addressing the impacts of HIV/AIDS on orphanhood, and evidence of this commitment is sought in provincial welfare budgeting flows. Feasibility analysis is conducted to determine the extent of possible effective responses from the Department. Finally, the effects of intervention in the spread of the epidemic on the costs of providing AIDS orphans with a social safety net are considered